Can AI do a person's job yet? How often it finishes paid freelance work a client accepts, how it scores on a human checklist, and who predicts AGI when.
21.3%
Remote Labor Index: share of real freelance jobs AI does as well as a professional
9 Oct 2026 (Value on the CAIS dashboard when checked; not a publication date). Center for AI Safety, AI Dashboard
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Given real paid freelance jobs, the best AI now hands in work a client would accept about 1 time in 5, up from 1 in 40 a year earlier.
57%
7 Aug 2025 (GPT-5 release date; scored in the paper (2025-10-21)). Hendrycks et al., A Definition of AGI (arXiv 2510.18212)
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On a checklist of what a well-educated adult can do with their mind, GPT-5 scored 57%, up from 27% for GPT-4; the biggest gap is that AI still can't remember and learn from new experience over time.
Shane Legg: 2028
"I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028."
Shane Legg (Google DeepMind co-founder), Dwarkesh Podcast, 26 Oct 2023. Dwarkesh Podcast, Shane Legg (DeepMind Founder) - 2028 AGI, superhuman alignment, new architectures